When will the next Lok Sabha election take place? Will it be in November or February? While this debate goes on, the BJP, NDA has slipped into the poll mode as can be seen from its preparations. The BJP is betting on a November poll along with elections to half a dozen State Assemblies. An upbeat BJP thinks it is far ahead of others in poll preparedness. Look at the way the party has declared a candidates list although the poll schedule has not been announced yet.

The NDA has already announced Leader of the Opposition L. K. Advani as its prime ministerial candidate. The BJP is also eyeing the UNPA. Once it breaks, the BJP hopes to get hold of some of the UNPA constituents. The UNPA never took off. Where will its constituents like the TOP, INLD and AGP go? These parties had come together on their anti-Congress stand; obviously they cannot go to the Congress. TDP, INLD and the AGP were once partners of the BJP. Babulal Marandi, who has floated his own outfit in Jharkhand, was a senior BJP leader earlier. The BJP has already opened a channel to INLD and AGP.

Bihar and UP are two major states where the BJP has to improve a lot. In UP, the BJP is resigned to its fate. But in Bihar, it has sorted out the problems with the intervention of Advani. Even on seat-sharing, the party hopes to adopt a give-and-take policy. The Shiv Sena in Maharashtra is the oldest ally of the BJP. Although Sena is in a weaker position after Raj Thackeray floated his own outfit, the electoral ties are likely to continue. The BJP can only hope for a post-poll alliance. Similarly, the TDP, which supported the NDA from outside, has severed its connections with the latter. Now that the UNPA is danger of a split, the TDP may go with the left parties and keep the post-poll option open.

The third important task for the BJP is to keep its house in order. The party had to sort out two problems. The first is within the BJP itself and the second in the Sangh parivar. There is no talk of collective leadership now as was the case soon after the 2004 election debacle. The party’s core group has already chalked out the election strategy.  The party plans to announce all candidates by the end of August, and the state units have been asked to send their inputs on candidate selection by then. However, the BJP should guard against being lulled into a false sense of confidence; in 2004 the party got carried away by the so-called feel good factor and India Shining campaign, and lost. The BJP is very careful about the Congress moves. Keeping ears to the ground and hard work alone will help it to regain power. The arithmetic is also equally important. A head start in election preparedness alone does not ensure victory.