It has been a busy few days on the domestic political scene. The UPA Government and its Left Front allies, now on opposite sides of the fence, have been engaged in a hectic round of parleys. New combinations are emerging, old cliques are being revived and all kind of permutations and combinations are up in the air. The political activity has been sparked of by the India US civil nuclear cooperation agreement, risking the displeasure of the Marxists and the clear danger of having in face an early Lok Sabha election.
This is not the only dilemma; the Left Front leaders do not want to be seen as wreckers of a secular government. But despite their ideological certainty, the communists are unsure of the politics of such a decision. Mr. Karat and Dr.Manmohan Singh have emerged as the only two individual in the middle of this uncertainty who have stood to their respective points of view. Mr. Singh is clear that the deal is good for the country and is asking that the communists be overruled, even if it means an early election. Mr. Karat is equally determined that any further movement on the deal will mean instantaneous withdrawal of support.
The other issues of governance which are inflation, rising oil prices, the hardship faced by the citizen seem to have taken a back seat to this clash of political and ideological interests, some might say, even of egos. An issue that most people won’t understand might become the reason for an early election. Ideology as a consideration for coalition in contemporary India is increasingly becoming an exception. If a resuscitated, though still full of organization contradictions, the EUP is looking for new allies; the Congress is looking to strengthen the UPA by extending an olive branch to the SP. Though still ill adapted in power-sharing with coalition partners, the Congress has attempted to mend rough edges in relationship with allies such as the NCP and has turned Nelson’s eye to allies disregard for collective responsibility.
The NDA, a coalition of two dozen partners in 1999, reduced virtually to half as its power in 2004, has been in disarray. As the coalition leader, the BJP is not in the pink of its health, despite ruling five states, partnering three and winning Karnataka. It still has to iron out many of its inner contradictions. The first secular alternative to the Congress, consisting of ever-fragmenting socialists, centrist as well as centre-left and centre-right parties, has cornered itself into an on-now and off-now third alternative.
Mayawati’s transforming the BSP’s Dalit-centric bahujan mobilization into a sarvajan umbrella has proved to be a political masterstroke. This is an effort in broad basing social coalition building that the Congress did till Indira Gandhi’s plebiscitary personality politics, something that no political party appears to be doing presently. This makes for an interesting political scenario for the politics of the fifteenth general election. In the meantime, some interesting rules of the coalition game are emerging and being erased in Indian politics.