Recently, Americans intelligence agencies have concluded that members of Pakistan’s powerful spy service helped plan the deadly July 7 bombing in Kabul, Afghanistan, according to United States government official. Intercepts of communications between Pakistani intelligence officers and the militants who carried out the attack are said to be with US agencies. Bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul as perhaps the first salvo of what Islamists consider will be the post-Bush endgame in Afghanistan. Barring stray attacks on individuals who had injudiciously strayed from the security perimeter, the 4000 or so Indian in Afghanistan have so far not been targeted by the Taliban. The Islamist zealots have let loose their suicide bombers and guerrillas against either the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force.

The Taliban’s war of attrition has devastated Western morale. Although no politician of consequence-not even Barak Obama-has actually clubbed Afghanistan with the mess in Iraq, there is a growing impression in the public mind that both wars are the same and equally unwinnable. The political upheaval in Pakistan, particularly the desire for a genuine and enduring democratic set-up, has, ironically, given a fillip to those forces in the West that want to opt out of messy engagements in strange places. Critics of the fading Bush order now feel that the priority is to quietly encourage democracy in Pakistan and hope that enlightenment will eventually overwhelm the dark forces of radical Islamism.

The movement for democracy in Pakistan is also being fuelled by those who perceive the United States of America as the greatest obstacle to Pakistan. This ties in beautifully with that section of the Pakistani establishment that sees the recovery of strategic depth in Afghanistan and the liberation of Kashmir as indispensable to the country’s being. Ironically, and despite the abuse showered on the institution by the country’s liberals, it also converges with the ISI desire to operate in an US-free environment. There is a sharp contradiction between the war on terror and what Pakistan perceives as its national interests. Democracy far from narrowing the gap may end up as an instrument of Pakistan's recklessness.

The massive attack on the Indian embassy, which the authorities in Kabul have blamed on the ISI (without actually naming it), was intended to scare away the Indians who are working on important nation-building assignments in Afghanistan as the attack was an open warning that assumes relevance in the context of the West’s desperation to reduce its involvement in the troubled zone. That the attack took place at a time when governance in India has for all practical purposes been put on hold makes it even more menacing.

Whether the Pakistani desire to reclaim Afghanistan and then focus on Kashmir succeeds or not will depend on the outcome of the US presidential poll and the ability of the British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, to weather his own internal storm. On its part, India has to prepare for the worst. Unfortunately, the uncertain trajectory of domestic politics and the absence of decisive leadership at the helm have put a question mark on the protection of our strategic interest. Democracy in Pakistan will not alter the fundamentals of that country’s strategic designs.