After days of dramatic tension and flip-flops, the Pakistan People’s Party and Pakistan Muslim League (N) have shifted their focus to impeaching the President rather than reinstating the judges. This might start a decisive battle for the assertion of will of the people's elected representatives against unaccountable centers of power-or precipitate a disastrous chain of events. At stake is the fate of the elected Government, and of democracy. The tortuous manner in which the impeachment decision was reached-after vacillation, off-now, on-now moments, and the theatrical restoration of eight High Court judges amidst charges of perfidy-raises questions about its solidity and the coalition’s ability to accomplish I what's an extremely difficult task .
It is not excluded that Gen Musharraf will strike to pre-empt or neutralize the impeachment move. What provoked the move was the fear that he might dissolve the Government. A confrontation will be averted if Gen Musharraf quits knowing that he won’t get United States or Pakistan Anny backing for a confrontationist course. He is no longer in a critical policy-making position, or indispensable to the US-led Global War on Terror (GWoT). Washington also cannot relish a new Pakistan crisis during an election year.
As Pakistan's divided, rudderless civilian leadership flounders, normal governance is in the deep freezer. The economy is in poor shape and inflation runs at 20 percent. Pessimism and gloom pervade Pakistan. The Pakistani military is under enormous pressure from the US to escalate its operations against the Taliban, or to allow the US-led International Security Assistance Force to undertake anti-militant raids across the border. There is a growing danger now that the gains from the recent trends towards democratization will be badly eroded, even lost. As this Column argued two months ago, these trends run against hierarchy and authoritarianism, negatively view the Three A’s (Army, Allah and America), and favor moderation, openness and accountability.
The ISI notification was timed to coincide with Prime Minister Giiani’s visit to the United States and assure President George W Bush that the ISI under civilian control would cooperate earnestly with the US’s GWoT. More important, it highlighted the weakness of the civilian Government vis-a-vis the military, which is loath to give up control over the agency which functions as a state within a state and has long implemented Pakistan’s policy towards both India and Afghanistan. This is a significant setback to Pakistan’s demoralization.
India has run one of the largest and most successful aid programmes in Afghanistan. Unlike Western aid projects, India routes its assistance without outsourcing it via numerous middlemen. Indian aid is far better focused than Western assistance and addresses felt needs in healthcare, edu-cation, urban transportation, and in the training of civil servants, diplomats, police and the judi-ciary. This has earned India a great deal of goodwill in Afghanistan. It would be in India’s own interest if it were to offer confidence-building measures to Islamabad, including cooperative aid projects in Afghanistan. The alternative to engaging Pakistan and accelerating the peace process is competitive Cold War-style rivalry, which will harm the interests of both India and Pakistan-and above all, the Afghan people.