As July 22nd draws near, we have hectic political activity to determine whether elections will be held in November’08 or in March 09 and what is going around is the political soap opera in play where political parties big and small and many individual MP's are bargaining for everything from formation of smaller states, vendetta’s against political opponents, Cabinet and other political posts, guarantee of Lok Sabha tickets, favors to business houses and of course in all this a few monetary assets are always welcome.

All this has nothing to do with the nuclear deal and whether the UPA wins or loses it would be a National disaster if the nuclear deal was to get derailed. We have had Coalition politics for close to two decades and over a period of time many a party have perfected the art of political survival but the compromises can be very expensive in terms of what we consider proper and what is happening today is no different from what has happened in several states Bihar, Jharkhand, Goa etc and strictures from the Supreme Court have had little effect and in all this firm governance suffers. We can play the blame game but the reality is that for political longevity there is little difference between any of the political groups.

The July 22nd vote and the efforts being made by political parties has little to do with the merits of the Nuclear deal but everything to do with the timing of the election. The election in November’08 would suit the NDA and the BJP as they will avoid facing anti incumbency trends in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and a possible defeat in two out of three states and they will comfortably win in Delhi. The NDA and allies are comfortable in Maharashtra, Bihar, Orissa and Karnataka. The UPA and the Congress in governance have a major negative in very high inflation coupled with rising food and essential commodity prices add to the negatives of the anti incumbency factor of the UPA and this is further compounded by the weakness of the Allies(RJD/DMK/JMM). A late election will suit the Congress as inflation may come under control and the current economic chaos and confusion may settle down to a more stable environment for elections.

The political groups today have little meaning in the future as winning seats and numbers in the Lok Sabha elections and almost everyone can align with anyone else for the sake of power and asset distribution at the Center. The Congress and the BJP will fight for getting the largest number of seats and a very close fight is possible. The Congress economic dream team is generating many a nightmare and the    general impression of economic chaos prevails reflected by excessive inflation, high food prices, falling production and  infrastructure bottle necks and the collapse of the stock market is not helping matters. The first four years were spectacular as Indian industry generated many a miracle and it would be unfortunate if in election year the performance is poor.